Who's Going to Win #VoteON? These Pollsters Have the Answer

Steve Paikin @spaikin · 4h

And how can @forum have the #ondp at 19% and @ipsos have them at 30%? Someone's gonna have some splainin' to do. #onpoli #voteON

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Of course they do.  Don't they always?

It must be so.  After all, they do billions of dollars annually, those pollsters.  If their methodology was broken, no one would be using it.

We're rational actors, after all.  Focused on facts, so on and so forth - not succumbing to what's simple, confidently and repetitively articulated.  This is especially true of the people at the top; they all get to where they are because of skill, not bluster.  Right?

It's them sociology-committing behavioural economists you need to worry about.  They do things like ask questions, test assumptions and focus on the mechanics, not the sales.

Forget them, focus on the people at the top.  Only they have the answers - not us, collectively.

Just ask Smokey.

The Genius Delusion

The popular narrative of the genius is that his eccentricities must be indulged, expectations must be made for him.  But in this mode of storytelling, the assumption is that we all recognize our places, except for the poor genius whose social awkwardness means he can't.  Hannibal's approach is uglier but probably truer.  A lot of people think they're special geniuses, but they're not all right.

I know a lot of really successful people who get away with not-literal murder because they are branded (or self-branded) as geniuses.  They neglect or mistreat their staff, abuse other people's time, neglect their families and enjoy excesses with the tacit support of enablers.  I still remember the day one of these so-called geniuses told me "you don't need to know what you're talking about; what matters is that you sound confident while saying it, and employ enough bluster to make other person feel like you're right."

The guy that said this isn't a genius.  Not to say that he's dumb - he's not - he's simply not exceptional in his ability to put thoughts together, see the big picture or innovate new solutions.  What this guy is good at, however, is passive-aggressive manipulation and all the tricks of the trade that make others feel less valuable themselves.  Whether he's personally aware where his actual strength lies or not, he's very confident in himself.

Like many ego-centrists, this guy is wealthy and successful by the measures we judge such standards.  

We've come to associate "smart" with "success" and therefore assume that the more successful you are, the smarter you must be.  We do this without any real clear definition of what smart means.

If you and I are in a debate and I shoot you, I win.  Is that smart?  What if you and I are in a debate and instead of facing you head-on over an issue, I spend my time undermining your confidence and smearing your character so that whoever is judging our debate comes to feel uncomfortable with you as a person?  That makes me clever, right?  In the eyes of the people, I will win and you will lose.

Nowhere is it written that I need to prove that I'm right to win - I simply need to prove you're wrong.  

And that, by and large, is how our system works.  It's ego, not genius, that gets people ahead.  A sense of entitlement is what drives people to demand a raise or the corner office.  We reward bluster and confidence, because we're hardwired to do so.

Meanwhile, the smartest people in the room are almost never the ones who make a big splash.  You don't see them; they don't particularly want to be seen.  They understand the trap of entitlement - when the focus is on position, you lose your ability to apply nudges across the whole board.

They also have a clear enough view of the whole picture so as to recognize that there is no one definition of smart and that, like an organism, it takes a number of complimentary skill sets for any system to work.  That - the function of the system - becomes their focus.  Empowering others to recognize this same end goal is the truest test and function of leadership.

When you can convince other people that your plan was their idea all along, that's a stroke of genius.

Linking Sex, Work and Success

 

 

 

When it comes to human evolution, it's likely that males who overestimated their appeal to females and pursued them even at the risk of being rebuffed were more likely to reproduce and pass this trait to their genetic heirs, the researchers suggested.

 

So we've heard that women need to complain and golf more to get ahead; here's the other side of that equation.

 

Let's say you have a quietly competent woman who is damned good at her job and probably capable of doing more and as such, generating more revenue for her boss.  As she's not arrogant, however, it's always in her head that she should be doing more; as such, she's not boastful, but just keeps improving her performance.

 

Meanwhile, she has a male colleague who is high confident and thinks more of his value than it's actual worth - and isn't afraid to tell the same to anyone.  He is annoyed that he's not getting recognized for his awesomeness and demands more, cornering the boss on the links, at the coffee machine, whatever.

 

This guy does a great job of selling his value to the boss, who rewards him in turn.  In whatever new positions he gets, this confident guy is quick to claim credit and even quicker to defer blame, but because he's so utterly convinced in his own abilities, those susceptible to doubt find it hard to question him.

 

How many delusionally confident men do we have mucking things up in positions of power?  How many quietly capable women getting things done but not tooting their own horns?

 

Something to think about. 

When it comes to human evolution, it's likely that males who overestimated their appeal to females and pursued them even at the risk of being rebuffed were more likely to reproduce and pass this trait to their genetic heirs, the researchers suggested.

Predictable Unpredictability: A Political Paradox

This is what clever political shenanigens look like:

Flaherty's announcement is a brilliant piece of political one-upmanship.

Mayor Rob Ford - already the subway hero in Scarborough - now takes on godlike proportions in the 'burb.  It assures his re-election.

And it caught the provincial Liberals flat-footed.

And here's the sort of thing that makes investors skittish, unwilling to commit to things like, say, investment in R&D:

If both sides understand each other, it makes for more predictable outcomes.  It is when they do not - when investors think policy will stay loose, say, just as it is tightening - that accidents happen.

Blame is boring - besides, every Party is equally guilty of putting partisan wins ahead of the best-interests of the people they were elected to represent.

That, in itself, is a systematic problem.  Pointing fingers clearly isn't getting us out of the burgeoning mess, nor is political one-upmanship.  If our politicians - and they are ours - maintain their focus on winning at all costs, we all lose.

Fortunately, there's some good news out there, too.  If the Ontario Liberals and the Ontario PCs can find it within themselves to work together and share a win that benefits all Ontarians, then anyone can do it.  After all, compromise has always been the solution to gridlock.

That's the example we should be encouraging our leaders to follow.

RELATED: It is also a matter of trust.  The Harper government doesn't enjoy much of that in the native community these days. 

UPDATED: So what if this feeds distrust between the federal government and the government of the largest province?  This is all about politics.

Ayn Rand would be proud.

If Confidence is King, then Humility is Queen

If you want to be a master of confidence (without falling into the trap of delusion) you gotta understand the psychology behind it.  Balance confidence with a bit of humility and you can put perfection, not yourself, at the top of the pedestal.

 

Confidence is King

 

James Caan

CEO of Hamilton Bradshaw

 

Ask any businessman or woman and they will tell you the same thing – confidence is a vital ingredient in the recipe for success. In other words, if you want to be really good at anything - no matter what walk of life you are involved in - you need to have belief in yourself and your abilities.

Not all of us are blessed with self-confidence. When I was starting out in business it was something that I personally had to work on to improve. I can still remember turning up for important meetings and interviews feeling incredibly nervous before walking into the room.

 

Of course, confidence improves with success and experience but there are various steps and measures you can take to make sure you are not put at a disadvantage by a lack of self-belief.

 

Preparation is everything. If you go into a meeting or interview not fully prepared then you are going to be on the back foot from the very outset. There is nothing worse than getting off to a bad start in an important meeting by not knowing that simple yet vital little detail.

 

To be honest, in these days of the internet and instant access to information there really is no excuse for being unprepared. It can make all the difference between a successful meeting and something which is a waste of time and effort. But more importantly, you will go into the meeting knowing that you personally have left no stone unturned. This is an excellent way of removing self-doubt.

 

Another good method is to think about positive outcomes you have achieved in the past. You may want to look back at case studies of clients you have worked with successfully, or sales that you have managed to close in the past. It does not even have to be business related – maybe you once gave a great speech in front of hundreds of people at a wedding! What you are doing is visualising past successes and this will put you in the right frame of mind for what is about to come.

 

Also, make sure you are resilient to criticism you get along the way. Rather than taking it as a negative, use it as a springboard for improvement. I have always said that it is the mistakes I’ve made which have given me the biggest lessons.

 

All of this has to come with a word of warning, because there can be a very thin line between confidence and arrogance. That is a characteristic that can very quickly get in the way of doing business.

 

It is a fact of life that we all prefer to work and deal with people we like and get on with. Just as importantly though, we also want to work with people that have total belief in what they are doing.

Pull Back the Veil to Reveal...

"It's as if Boorman were guiding us down a magic corridor and kept parting the curtains in front of us."

  -  Pauline Kael

"You keep telling yourself what you know. But what do you believe?"

  -  Mal, Inception

"I am all that was, is and will be, and no mortal has yet lifted my veil."

  - Inscription from a statue of Isis

Today, I read an article about how overconfident people succeed, frequently in spite of the limits of their talents.  Promotions, monetary success, etc aren't about skills in many fields, ranging from sales to politics to polling - it's about confidence.  When these people are in positions beyond which their skills are suited - say, management, they can actually impede success of their direct reports.  Mistakes aren't owned. they are trickled down.  Underlings get thrown under the bus, which continues to chug along the wrong trajectory.

I have also written about the cognition of confidence, too - people who are expert at a given task tend not to be hyper-confident.  There is always doubt that perhaps, they've missed something in their analysis, a better example could have been found, etc.  This is how expertise is developed - uncertainty and the need to do better drives these individuals to push beyond the limits of what they know.

If you're overconfident, there's no need to pursue new facts that will cloud the issue - you have the answer, the ability, the skill without modification.  You just need to keep doing what you know.   Which is why overconfidence is the enemy of expertise.

Ignorance is a veil blocking off the dark corners of our mind.  When we pull back those veils, we find new things, new facets, new capacities to build and connect ideas - then communicate them.  When we're overconfident in the model of us we've established, we're telling ourselves we've already pulled back all the curtains; there's nothing left to discover.  We're deluding ourselves we're the best at what we do, we know more than others, the answers are ours, if victory were solely up to us, it would be assured.

Yet nobody's perfect, there is always room for improvement.  The right push, the right crisis - the right motivation will shake our worlds enough to show the impermanence of the walls we've established as safe ground, forcing us to lift another veil. 

With the slightest disturbance, the dream's going to collapse.

Dreams make for another great metaphor.  By their nature, dreams are removed from reality and include impossible detail, but we don't question that while we're in the dream.  When we awaken, it becomes clear to us that the things we accepted could not be - nuance was missing, detail, texture.

Such is perception.  We imbue what we perceive with emotional value - it is that internally described value, not the nature of the thing perceived, that shapes our judgement.  On the surface, the employee who under performs is incompetent and that's all there is to it, or the boss is a superficial egomaniac who cares less about results and more about flaunting their position.  One level deeper, the employee might have been sold that they are something they are not - same too the boss.  There might be family, health, all kinds of issues that shape who that person is and what lineage they bring to a given moment of contact.  The same basic principle applies to someone who looks in the mirror and "feels fat" despite what anyone tells them; it's the feeling of the thing, not the thing itself, that resonates.

You can say that's all irrelevant - all that matters is the bottom line or the pay cheque.  You can tell yourself to keep home and personal and work and social lives separate, but there's just one person in which those worlds are equally grounded - you.  In experience, you find that it's hard to keep those worlds from collapsing in on each other. 

When you cling to your confidence and try to deny the possibility that reality has more depth than you've credited it with, confidence can quickly turn in to fear of the unknown and in response, anger.  When you come to accept that you are not perfect and have much to learn, you tear down another veil.

Maybe you don't like the metaphors; maybe allegory isn't your thing.  Try it this way:

Ambiguous visual images are fascinating because it is often difficult to imagine seeing them any other way--until something flips within the brain and the alternative perception is revealed. This phenomenon, known as perceptual rivalry, is of great interest to neuroscience. Because rivalrous illusions produce changes in perception that are independent of changes in the stimulus itself, they may help to understand how the brain gives rise to conscious experience.

Pay no attention to what's behind the curtain.

Confidence Vs. Competence

It turns out the experts are not bursting with self-confidence. They are self-doubters who hone their skills by countering their own hypotheses.

There are two kinds of success – personal dominance and actual accomplishment.  It’s great to be top dog, I guess, but what’s the point if you don’t do anything with your position?

Society has to start internalizing this question; what do we really want to support, confidence or competence?  The two don’t always come in tandem.  If you want to support achievement, you have to re-evaluate motivation.

It’s  a brave new world.