China in Canada: Circling the Water Hole

“Seven of the world’s 10 most populated regions face such severe water shortages over the next three decades that they threaten to derail the growth which hundreds of millions of people in the developing world are banking on to lift them out of poverty.”

One of those countries is China.  China’s communist regime has a lot of challenges on their plate these days – significant internal pressures that are building to the boiling point.  Their water’s running out, they have a couple bubbles waiting to burst, the middle class is feeling both duped and squeezed and there are still too many people having to get by on the equivalent of $1 a day.   

One thing in their favour, most of the time, has been a stable political process that, while stifling democracy and causing a lot of the problems they now face, at least allows for long-term planning.

Knowing the internal challenges they face, China has been playing the long game.  While Western countries get caught up in four-year political cycles and scandals ranging from election fraud to bunga bunga parties, China has been building its presence in Africa and the South Pacific, making the right friends and casting its shadow over those they can control.

China has more troops positioned in Africa than Canada has, period.  They are positioning themselves for resource access but also land access, as they’re going to need somewhere to grow food for their massive populace.  In addition to food, though, China is going to need water.  Where is the world’s largest freshwater system? 

Prime Minister Harper, determined to build a natural resource-based economy that capitalizes on Alberta oil walked off in a huff from the US and into the welcoming arms of China.  To maintain and build a stronger relationship with China, Harper has opened the doors to Canada’s telecoms sector.  He has done this against advice from his own advisors and foreign partners.  Unfortunately, Harper and his inner team are believers of the “reality based” model of politics – they think they can create reality if they are tough and shrewd enough.  Sadly for us, they’re wrong.

China sees oil as a panda foot in the door – but they aren’t going to stop there.  As they start circling Ottawa, you can bet they’ve got one eye turned towards the Great Lakes.

Far from firewalling Canada against troubles lapping at our shores, Harper has now made us vulnerable on several fronts to a player that has drawn the consternation of many allies, including our southern neighbours.  If the US sees China’s presence in Canada’s telecoms as a threat, if they start to see the potential for external competition over our shared fresh water, you can guarantee something will budge.

There’s a way to make a win of this, but not through the strategy Harper is playing.  It’s time Canadians start paying more attention to global water woes – because those are challenges that are going to come home to roost sooner rather than later.

Harper's Economic Bungle

"China has been Canada’s fastest-growing trade partner for a decade; although it still takes only 3.7 per cent of our exports, it represents 11 per cent of our imports."

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/jeffrey-simpson/seeking-a-nibble-in-asian-trade-waters/article2378353/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=Opinions&utm_content=2378353&service=mobile

Stephen Harper has been adamant about playing by his rules for the entirety of his run as Prime Minister. It was only when he saw longer-term benefit for himself that he considered partnering with others (like the NDP and Bloc in bringing down Martin). He has backtracked when his manipulative management-style has backfired, but only under duress.

For the majority of the time, when he doesn't get his way he pulls his toys out of the sandbox, to his (and our) detriment.

His cooling and now warming to China is a great example of this. Harper tried to smudge out the connective work of his predecessors because it suited his personality to do so; now, having stormed out on Obama over oil pipelines, he's mending fences with Asian neighbours, rebuilding relationships first established by Liberals (only Trudeau could go to China). That's got to sting.

There's another thing happening here, though - Harper's narrow focus is blinding him to broader opportunities, leading him to dismiss approaches he hasn't tailored himself. The trade stats above are case in point.

China exports more to us than we do to them, by a wide margin. Check your labels for what's bought in China to see that in practice. Yet, seeing how lucrative the sale of products is, Harper still insists natural resources are the only way to go. Canadians are still BUYING stuff; we're simply buying at greater cost the finished goods made with our raw material elsewhere.

When we start importing bottled Canadian Spring Water, I hope Harper - or at least Canadians - will see the folly of this limited approach.

Ethics, Planning and Diversification – A Lesson For Stephen Harper

“Saudi Arabia can get a lot of growth, but that is not the right growth. Take away the oil and Saudi Arabia would be like a poor African country.”

A Resource-Based Economy

PM Stephen Harper, bolstered by the Alberta government, is looking to natural resources as the source of economic growth for Canada, moving forward.  It’s the hewing wood, hauling water model of economic prosperity.  The model that, you know, was previously employed by our manufacturing sector.  This is the Henry Ford model of production – create a stratigraphy of labour, keep people in the dark and therefore, in their place, rinse and repeat.  It’s a very linear approach.

You can argue there will always be a market for Canada’s natural resources and, where oil is concerned, China’s going to be thirsty for our oil for a very, very long time.  How can betting on oil fail?

Consider – the US is leery about benefiting from the Tar Sands because of environmental concerns – concerns shared by a large number of Canada’s international partners. 

China, while an economic giant, still has a terrible human rights record.  They aren’t necessarily the best long-term planners, either.  They oppress their own people, their minority groups, plus they interfere in international affairs, stifling action where human rights interests might interfere with their economic interests.  Again, the world is watching; if Canada has put all its economic eggs in the Chinese basket, does that foster a world view that we’re complicit in this oppression?

Oh – and China’s got a major water shortage problem that is only going to get worse.  Of course, environmental degradation through environmentally unsound practices has nothing to do with it; China’s policies certainly don’t impact food growth or population quality-of-life.  You know the saying about what happens when the watering hole shrinks.  With a fixation on control, a widening gap between urban wealth and rural poverty and a water shortage, what kinds of conversations do you think are happening in the upper echelons of the Chinese government? 

You can bet that, while China’s publicly wooing Canadian oil, they’ve already got their eye on our fresh water supply, too.

Dirty Tricks

"If you're Elections Canada, you're going to think, 'What is it that we can do to ensure this sort of thing doesn't happen?' And it's probably something that they haven't given a lot of thought to because it's never happened here before."

The Federal Conservatives are shocked, shocked to find out that dirty, illegal tricks have crept into the politics of the nation.  There is no connection, of course, between this degradation of our democracy and the general aggressive tactics of the Harper Tories.  Time will tell who all is involved; either way, there is a pattern of behaviour that has been established and nurtured by the Tories, whether it was their implicit intent or not.

The net result of all this political nastiness is a disillusioned and increasingly angry populace.  Like Karl Rove before him, Stephen Harper set out to build a conservative dynasty; instead, he has only managed to polarize and embitter the nation he has sworn to lead.

Weaving the Tapestry

How do natural resource dependence, China reliance and political dirty tricks connect?

They are all the product of linear thinking.  While I’m sure top-dog Harper strategists spend significant time mulling the SWOT of their various political strategies and tactics while sipping latés in their war rooms, how successful have they been at looking at the whole canvas? 

I suppose you can’t generalize by saying that a refusal to consider the opinion of Opposition Parties in the House or in Committees is reflective of a closed-mind approach to planning.  Politics is an iceberg, after all – we only ever see the tip.  You can’t look to an aggressive, divisive political approach as demonstrative of a blind tendency to attack rather than contemplate.  It’s probably not fair to suggest that a pathological penchant for control and secrecy paints a picture of limited, linear thinking.  The same could hold true for an over-reliance on one sector as the only vehicle for future growth.

All these threads, by themselves, are not conclusive; taken as an aggregate, however, there’s that pattern of behaviour again. 

“It is really about societies that have a more equitable distribution of political power versus those that don’t.  It is about societies where the elite, the rich, can do what they want and those where they cannot.”

“…the leaders of extractive regimes don’t implement policies that stifle sustainable growth out of ignorance. They aren’t stupid; they are merely and rationally pursuing their own self-interest. The real ignorance is that of outsiders who fail to appreciate that in an extractive regime, the interests of the rulers and the ruled do not coincide.”

As I have written before, I don’t think Stephen Harper is a bad man.  I don’t think his team is intentionally knee-capping Canada.  I do think their singular, aggressive focus on control has brought them short-term success, but to their (and our) long-term detriment.

The whole reason we have a Parliament and elected representation is because a diversity of opinion is essential to leadership – you can’t plan ahead if you don’t have perspective.  Decorum and ethics aren’t about putting on airs or pandering to others; it’s about fostering a climate that allows for discussion to happen.  Altruism isn’t about selfishly giving to the weak – it’s about creating an environment that provides greater opportunity for every individual.

Social evolution is creative destruction; either you foster it yourself, or you become consumed by it.

What’s the lesson for Stephen Harper?

- Take the time to listen to your opponents; they might tell you something helpful.

- Don’t put all your eggs in one basket – Canada has a lot more to offer than just oil.  Diversify.  Look at natural resources, but renewable fuels, too; there's a market for them.  If water’s going to be of interest, build Canada’s blue economy.  Proactively take advantage of emerging trends rather than be blindsided by them.  Look to the Arts; there’s plenty of economic and cultural growth and export opportunity to be had with Canada’s entertainment industry.

- If you’re going to think about political strategy 24/7, think about it in your role as Prime Minister, not as the Conservative Leader.  It’s what we’re paying you to do.

- Leadership is inclusive.  It doesn’t matter where you come from, it’s what you find along the way – meaning us Canadians.  We’re a pretty clever, entrepreneurial lot, given the opportunity.

Legacy isn’t about control – it’s about what you leave behind.