How Important is Youth Employment to Toronto's Election?

 

"One thing seems to resonate for Chow's campaign: her messaging on youth unemployment... it earned her the loudest cheers of the night."

 

Politics is a finicky thing, especially when it comes to elections.

 

While partisans and pundits like to talk about defining issues and how whatever message they were plugging was the decisive factor in determining an election's outcomes, the truth is that people have their own minds and make them up through a myriad of reasons.

 

One of the key things we do cognitively (and we see this manifested in many ways throughout society - "low hanging fruit", "optimization" and "strategic priorities" being some examples) is discount what we think is irrelevant to focus on what presents either a threat or an opportunity to us. 

 

This doesn't mean we land on the right assumptions - ask any pundit about that - but it's how our brain works.

 

That, and by association.  If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck - it's a duck.  This is why partisans work so hard on defining issues and the like; Rob Ford won the last election because he was the perceived anti-establishment candidate and the only one talking rough on cost cutting and social justice masquerading as punishment for champions of the status quo.

 

Chow's got a couple of different definitions she's playing with, but this champion of youth employment is both a very interesting and very risky one.

 

Why?

 

Because in the mix of folk running to be mayor is an actual youth who has youth issues as her centerpiece of her campaign.

 

Morgan Baskin is 19 years old, smart, articulate, quick on her feet, getting some positive attention from increasingly big media outlets and, most importantly, earning a lot of support from an incredibly wide demographic:

 

"My surprise supporters have been the people who surround young people - grandparents, parents, teachers and others who are pleased that the young people in their lives are engaging in politics."

 

That's from an article in Forbes.  Most of the time when Toronto gets any attention beyond local media, it's because of crack-smoking Rob Ford.  There's real appeal in a fresh face that has the ability to re-brand Toronto in the eyes of the world.

 

Oh, and her answer to "why are you running" is a powerful message geared right at the people that Chow is trying to target:

 

"If older people can represent me, a younger generation can represent them."

 

It's not for no reason that Baskin's been receiving encouraging emails to drop out of the race from other teams.  Some folk are afraid she may "split the vote", making it easier for Ford to win again.  Others are afraid she may actually be capable of winning this thing.

 

Of course, good will and emails don't equate with dedicated volunteering and votes on E-Day.  Baskin has a tiny campaign team without the bandwidth to answer all the emails she's getting, which is problematic - nobody likes to feel neglected.  At the same time, people get clearly why this is the case, which may bolster rather than take away that initial enthusiasm, especially as her media attention grows.

 

Baskin is a fringe candidate and not included in the main debates; this hinders her for exposure, maybe, if anyone beyond the already-committed folk are following the debates.  That's debatable in itself.  Not being in the debates also keeps her out of the line of fire for the kinds of bitter attacks that dominate political debates and seem sure to be a staple of the rest of this election.

 

Having said that, should it look like Baskin proves a legitimate threat, you can bet that the war room masters of other campaigns will set her in their sights.  From their perspective, politics is war and if you're on the field, you have to be prepared to be fired upon.

 

Would Baskin hold up to blistering attacks of her character, her positions, her age, etc.?  How would she respond?  She's never been tested under such focused negativity, so there's no clear answer to that one.

 

Plus, smart backroom folk wouldn't necessarily need to go overly nasty - they could, if they don't think she's up to it, poke Baskin on the really tough issues that mayors face; how would she respond to a mass-shooting or a massive natural disaster?  Does she have the moxy to be a beacon for the people in times of hardship?

 

It's a risky question to ask, because the answer may well be yes.  Particularly under our weak-mayor system, one of the key roles of chief magistrate is to be a community cheerleader, and a rallying point.  Basking could potentially be that.  She certainly wouldn't be worse than Ford.

 

So it's an interesting gambit for Team Chow to play, this focus on youth employment.  It may yet prove to be a case of be careful of what you wish for... because if that really is what the people really want, that's probably what they'll opt for.