Stephen Harper's An Economist - Right?

October, 2008:  "If we were going to have some sort of big crash or recession, we probably would have had it by now.”

 

September, 2012:  "I thought that while the recovery would be slow, I did not expect the level of uncertainty that we still see."

 

 

Here's the rub - economies are about more than just numbers - they're about behaviour.  If you can't wrap your head around how and why people make financial decisions in practice, you're predictions will always be off.