Ontario Election Prediction

The Liberals have moved ahead in seat projection, and now lead with 49.  The PCs have fallen back into second with 44, while the New Democrats have taken a deep tumble to just 14 seats.  The ranges favour the Liberals, at between 39 to 57 seats against 35 to 52 for the Tories and 14 to 18 for the NDP.

That's a stats guy, doing what he does - what he's been repeatedly recognized as doing well.

The Liberals stand a good chance of holding Ontario, despite the cons in their record.  Is it their pros that will win over voters?

The pundits will pick their targeted poison - that's what they do.  Whatever serves their narrative gets raised; whatever doesn't, doesn't.

Hudak has been true to his brand - he has a really, really hard time resisting a quick hit.  Horwath has been true to her brand, too - committing isn't her strong suit.

While Team Wynne hasn't been as clean as they could or should be - lots of junior staff, lots of half-committed senior staff - they stand a good chance of winning for reasons that are more than the sum of their parts.

But the title refers to a prediction.  What do I mean by that?

I've got several posts that hint at what's to come next.  If you are enough, you can find them here.